On October 18th, Beijing time, the onshore RMB fell below the 6.94 mark against the US dollar, the first time since January 2017, at 6.9422, and the high was once at 6.9466. On October 18, the central parity of the RMB was lowered by 172 points to 6.9275, which was the lowest price of the previous trading day since January 5, 2017. The median price of the previous trading day was 6.9103; the official closing price of the previous trading day was 6.9249, and the last trading day closed at 6.9235. . At the same time, the central bank’s open market was suspended for 14 consecutive days. No open market operations are carried out today, and no reversible repurchase expires. As of the end of the New York exchange market, the US dollar index against the six major currencies rose 0.55% to 95.5746 on the 17th. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed that given the continued strength of the job market and the expected increase in inflation, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again in December, which provides support for the strengthening of the US dollar. The US Treasury Department released a semi-annual exchange rate policy report on the 17th, arguing that the major US trading partners, including China, have not manipulated the currency exchange rate. Insiders pointed out that the fundamentals of the RMB exchange rate are stable and the overall depreciation risk is controllable. In the short-term, as the US dollar index returns to the range, the downward pressure on the RMB against the US dollar has eased, and the rapid depreciation of the stage has come to an end. According to the Industrial Research Report, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the fourth quarter is difficult to break before, and the probability of falling below 7 yuan is small. If the US dollar index weakens, the RMB may break above the current shock range, but the upside is affected by the spread anchor. Relatively limited.

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